The legalization of marijuana in some states in the U.S. would significantly reduce Mexico’s drug revenues, providing the largest financial shock in decades, said the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness ( IMCO).
The UN Security Director, Alejandro Hope, estimated at a press conference that revenue would potentially fall 20 to 30 percent from drug trafficking, although the Sinaloa cartel, which would be the most affected, would lose up to 50 percent, was considered.
In his opinion, “this would be favorable to Mexico, in the sense that it would be the biggest financial blow to cartels in decades.”
On 6 November, the states of Washington, Colorado and Oregon, in the United States, shall make consideration of its voters a series of initiatives that, if passed, would legalize the possession, production, distribution and sale of marijuana for recreational use .
The manager explained that this measure is approved must await the reactions of the U.S. government, because the rest of the states will remain illegal activity and could go to court alleging unconstitutional invasion of powers, and that would be a violation of international treaties in the art.
However, he stressed that the initiative achieved and implemented as proposed, would create a legal market for cannabis (marijuana scientific name), which in turn displace the product placed by drug trafficking.
He said the marijuana that would occur in the United States would be of higher quality because it has a high content of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is the main psychoactive component of the drug.
Based on the assumptions made by the IMCO, explained the manager, a pound of Mexican marijuana sold today in New York over three thousand dollars, would be well above the $ 408 billion it would cost a kilogram of the drug legalized in the United States.
The Mexican narco would have a market share of 36.5 percent marijuana in Washington, Colorado 37.9 percent and 48.9 percent in Oregon, while decreasing potential would be 22.7, 23.5 and 30.4 percent, respectively.
For Alejandro Hope, would have a greater impact in terms of jobs, because marijuana is more labor intensive than other drugs, although it is difficult to estimate whether this staff would be absorbed by other illegal and violent.
In response, the Mexican government considered that will launch alternative development programs in production areas, and monitor the traffic potential in reverse, ie, from the U.S. to Mexico.